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2024 NBA draft notebook: UCLA's prospects failing to deliver; how long will Topic and Sarr be sidelined?

发布时间:2024-05-19浏览次数:

After coming off three consecutive Sweet 16 appearances, the UCLA Bruins have struggled this season. It's not for a lack of talent as the Bruins had three NBA draft prospects coming into the season. But with a 6-9 record, Aday Mara, Adem Bona and Berke Buyuktuncel could all find themselves needing to return to college next season instead of declaring for the 2024 draft.

ESPN NBA draft insiders Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo look at the troubles in Westwood along with the latest on a pair of injuries to two top-five prospects in Nikola Topic and Alex Sarr and the Colorado prospect gaining momentum in this week's notebook.

While much scrutiny has been paid to the struggles of 8-7 USC due to the presence of former projected No. 1 pick Isaiah Collier and Bronny James, crosstown rivals UCLA appear to be in a significantly worse situation. The Bruins are 6-9, losing four consecutive home games for the first time in two decades. With zero wins against top-150 opponents, they'll need a miraculous turnaround to even make the NIT at this stage.

That's shocking considering the school is coming off three consecutive Sweet 16s, including a run to the NCAA Final Four in 2022. Bruins coach Mick Cronin was fortunate to inherit program stalwarts Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell -- the backbone of those teams along with Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang -- thanks to the work of previous head coach Steve Alford. Cronin has been unable to create an attractive enough environment for high-level prospects of his own since, despite being in the middle of one of the most fertile recruiting bases in Southern California.

Digging into film and numbers, it's not hard to understand what ails the Bruins. There is no point guard to be found on the roster, it's one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in college basketball, there are few easy baskets to be had with the snails' pace the team plays at, and they either post-up or shoot 2-point jumpers more than virtually any team in the country. The Bruins play an archaic style of offense that doesn't fit their personnel and has been easy for opponents to stop.

Starting the season with three players considered firmly in the mix as first-round prospects -- Aday Mara, Adem Bona and Berke Buyuktuncel -- it's looking increasingly likely that at least two -- and possibly all three -- will need to return to college, with only Bona (No. 36 ESPN 100) having done anything close to enough to maintain his standing.

Bona's offensive efficiency is down considerably, as easy baskets have been difficult to come by, but it's still easy to see how he can bring value to an NBA team with his offensive rebounding, shot-blocking, finishing and ground coverage defensively. He will surely look better surrounded with shooting, and guards who understand how to play pick-and-roll and are capable of utilizing his lob-catching prowess, while his defensive versatility has been on display all season. It remains to be seen whether an NBA team will want to invest first-round draft capital on a 6-foot-10 center with a fairly limited offensive skill set, but he has a high floor and should be able to stick around the NBA thanks to his tireless work ethic and willingness to do the little things.

Mara has been a major disappointment, playing 18 total minutes in UCLA's past five games. He's behind Bona on the depth chart and sixth-year senior Kenneth Nwuba, a career 1.1 PPG scorer through 105 games. While it is likely coming as a surprise for Mara to be playing even fewer minutes in the Pac-12 than he did against the professional competition in the Spanish ACB last season, his extreme struggles defensively due to his lack of mobility and physicality make it easy to understand why he's been unable to stay on the court. Mara hasn't done enough to help UCLA's dysfunctional offense either, as he's struggled to score efficiently while making head-scratching decisions. Still only 18 years old, and needing time to catch up to the speed and physicality of the college game, Mara is looking like a 2025 draft prospect at best who hasn't been able to show any of the things that made him an interesting prospect before enrolling in college.

Buyuktuncel has not played up to the lofty standards he set at the 2023 FIBA U19 World Cup, but has some mitigating circumstances we can point to, having missed six games due to injury or NCAA eligibility concerns. He played his two best games of the season recently versus Oregon and Stanford, so he may round into form still and show more of what made him such a highly touted prospect last summer. We've seen signs of the sweet-shooting touch, passing vision and excellent timing and awareness defensively that make Buyuktuncel interesting at 6-10, but he's had some tough moments guarding one-on-one, getting beaten up on the glass and struggling to finish around the rim with his lack of explosiveness. Like all of UCLA's players, he's played tentatively, passing up open 3-pointers to step into contested 2s, looking over his shoulder after every mistake as he gets subbed in and out of games constantly without any rhyme or reason. He is also playing fewer minutes for UCLA than he did against pros in the Turkish first division and FIBA Champions League last season, which probably wasn't part of his recruiting pitch.

Cronin's previous inability to utilize Peyton Watson, who entered college a projected top-five pick in 2021 but saw his draft stock fall after averaging just 3.3 points in 13 minutes per game, will give NBA teams some pause in evaluating UCLA's current crop of prospects. Watson looks like a major steal for the Denver Nuggets in his second season after looking unplayable for the Bruins. How effectively Cronin can reel in NBA talent moving forward, and from where, will be a big question moving forward, as quite a few bridges have been burned in Southern California and now in Europe with Cronin's Bob Knight style team management and unattractive style of play. -- Jonathan Givony

Projected No. 1 pick Alex Sarr and Nikola Topic (No. 5) were both ruled out Friday with hip and knee injuries, respectively, that will keep them out of action for an undetermined amount of time. Sarr, who has been out since Dec. 28, is day-to-day but could miss Perth's next game this upcoming weekend. Topic will not see the court until February at the earliest, but could be out until March.

In a draft class with little consensus regarding the top 10 prospects and how to rank them, getting fewer games to evaluate the most elite of that group versus high-level competition isn't ideal from NBA scouts' perspective. Many high-level NBA executives have not yet had a chance to scout this class (especially international prospects such as Sarr and Topic) extensively live, creating consternation on Friday as changes were made to travel and scouting schedules.

Nevertheless, it's unlikely these injuries will ultimately have much of an effect on the draft stock of either player. Both players have built extensive résumés this season -- 21 games for Sarr, 19 for Topic -- with significant roles that don't leave much to the imagination regarding their projection to the NBA, beyond the typical uncertainty that comes with the territory.

Topic played 31 EuroLeague minutes since his unusual mid-season transfer back to Red Star in late December, but the way he hit the ground running in his time on the floor was encouraging. The sheer confidence and aggressiveness he displayed indicate there is little to worry about regarding how his game will scale up to higher-level competition. Topic's one-on-one defense, in particular, looked better than advertised, and it took him no time at all to show his ability to drive into the paint, find teammates creatively on the move, and demonstrate the vision and creativity at 6-foot-7 that every NBA team covets. Topic should still have at least a month or more of EuroLeague action when he returns, along with high-level matchups in the Adriatic and Serbian league playoffs, which should include plenty of games against archrival EuroLeague opponents Partizan Belgrade.

Sarr had been playing some of his best basketball of the season, looking increasingly comfortable as a ballhandler, passer and shooter with some outstanding moments defensively, helping his team win nine of 11 games before getting injured. While some initially feared this would be the last we saw of Sarr in a Perth uniform -- à la LaMelo Ball and R.J. Hampton "shutting down" their NBL seasons early in 2020 -- that does not appear to be the case, unless his injury is worse than initially known.

Sarr has stated publicly on multiple occasions that he will be finishing the season in Perth, including just a few weeks ago in a news conference: "We are winning and my goal is to make the playoffs and get the furthest I can," Sarr said. "I'm having fun out there and competing for something. It's the first time in my life where I'm part of a league where I'm really trying to win something at the end."

On a positive note, Colorado's Cody Williams will be returning from the wrist injury that has kept him out since Dec. 8 for either the Buffs' next game versus Cal on Wednesday or against USC on Saturday, a source told ESPN. -- Givony

Playing alongside two projected first-round picks in Cody Williams and Tristan da Silva, KJ Simpson has not only been Colorado's best player this season, but arguably the best player in the Pac-12 and a legit All-American candidate. A volume scorer who struggled with shot selection and streaky outside shooting in his first two seasons at Colorado, Simpson is putting up points prolifically (20.5 PPG) with outstanding efficiency, with a sparkling 66% true shooting buoyed by his 45% 3-point percentage.

Simpson's shot-making prowess has taken a major step forward this season, as he's shown the ability to hit pull-up and spot-up jumpers from NBA plus range with excellent mechanics.

Simpson's ballhandling ability and quickness also stand out, either attacking in the open floor, or getting to the rim off crossovers and hesitation moves with either hand out of pick-and-roll or one-on-one in the half court. Still a work in progress with his decision-making, he's improved his ability to drive and dish, make pocket passes or outlets ahead and see what's in front of him, even if he's still not the most natural facilitator or playmaker right now, especially operating in traffic.

He had a difficult showing in a 47-point road loss to Arizona this past week, shooting 5-of-17 from the field with eight turnovers, as the Buffs were severely overmatched with both da Silva and Williams out with injuries.

Simpson's measurements will be scrutinized closely during the pre-draft process (if he elects to enter as a junior) as he does not have overwhelming size/length or strength for his position at 6-foot-2 and 189 pounds, something that is noticeable at times on both ends of the floor. He plays with great energy defensively, showing quick hands and good instincts, but is relatively easy for bigger guards to shoot over and shows a lack of awareness off the ball, running into screens and not always knowing the scouting report.

Simpson has entered our top-50 prospect rankings and has room to rise if he can help Colorado make some noise in Pac-12 play and the NCAA tournament with the huge platform he has at his disposal alongside da Silva and Williams. -- Givony

One of the less-heralded stars this season has been PJ Hall, who has led Clemson to a 14-3 start and looked like an All-American caliber performer, enhancing his candidacy as a draftable player in the process. Hall was invited to last year's G League Elite Camp, where he earned enough votes to move up to the combine, but ultimately didn't gain the traction to justify staying in the 2023 draft. That decision has been beneficial: He's averaging 19.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.1 steals per game, while shooting 64.3% on 2s, 34.9% on 3s and 77.6% from the line. Hall has been one of the most productive players in the country, and showcased some interesting versatility in the frontcourt. He most recently checked in at No. 48 on our big board.

In a flat draft where many teams will be mining for potential role players outside the lottery, Hall brings a solid offensive profile to the table and is capable of scoring on the interior, stepping behind the arc while supplying physical, high-effort minutes. He's always been a good free throw shooter for his size, and looks pretty comfortable catching and shooting, which allows him to potentially handle a valuable role at the NBA level. Hall's frame has filled out over his college career, and he's an above-average athlete, which coupled with a passable skill level allows him to play out of a range of spots on offense without clogging the paint or needing too many touches. He should be able to operate as a screener, play out of the corners, and pass well enough to make simple reads on the perimeter. He likely won't warrant the level of usage he's seen at Clemson, but the variety of ways Hall can contribute bodes well for his chances of finding a role off the bench somewhere. Bigs who play hard, can knock down an open shot and make simple plays with the ball -- Bobby Portis or Jaylin Williams -- have found ways to stick and soak up minutes on winning teams.

The more salient questions come on the defensive end, where Hall's size and length (6-8¼ barefoot with a 7-1¼ wingspan) aren't great for an interior player at the NBA level. He doesn't move his feet well enough on the perimeter to be exceptionally versatile on that end, although he does compensate effectively with high effort and physicality which allows him to be a contributor on that end at the college level. Hall, who is yet to turn 22, is on the younger end for a senior, but he's essentially maxed out his frame at this point. If he shoots well enough, it may ultimately be enough to keep him on the floor in the NBA.

Hall isn't exactly an exciting player archetype, but the reliability he supplies as a stretch big who can contribute across several areas has given his prospect status a boost at this point, with a chance to put himself firmly in guaranteed money range moving forward. -- Jeremy Woo

Diving into the mid-major ranks, Weber State's Dillon Jones has been one of the most productive players in the country, checking in at No. 64 on our Top 100 list. Jones has been instrumental in his team's success, contributing 19.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists, scoring efficiently at high volume, and generally doing a lot of heavy lifting for the Wildcats, who are currently first in the Big Sky and have a good chance to make the NCAA tournament.

Jones was one of the better on-court performers at last year's draft combine, showcasing the passing ability and playmaking that make him interesting at 6-foot-6 and 233 pounds. Jones' body type and below-average run-jump athleticism once made for a difficult sell, but the diversity in his offensive game stands out as teams are always in search of role players who can make quick decisions, play team basketball, and fit in alongside star talent. He can play off the bounce, get into the paint, create shots for himself and others, and knows how to use his size to his advantage. In addition to visibly trimming down his frame a bit, he's performed like one of the best offensive players in college basketball and has a legitimate set of on-ball guard skills that differentiates him from recent bigger-bodied college forwards such as David Roddy (selected No. 23 overall by the Memphis Grizzlies in 2022).

While his skill and feel have helped to overcome what he lacks athletically on the offensive end, Jones' individual defense is a key area of his evaluation as he doesn't guard especially well in space, offers no rim protection rotating help, and isn't overly tall for a frontcourt defender, having measured at 6-foot-4½ barefoot at the combine. On the plus side, Jones' ability to process the floor translates in the form of anticipatory steals, and he's a competitive defender with the strength to body up bigger forwards. It's still generally an uphill climb for players in his mold to add value on that end in the NBA -- offenses will pick on slower-footed defenders and force them to switch, chase and guard on an island. A lot of that can get hidden against low-level competition, which is what he'll face the rest of the way.

The selling point when it comes to the draft will be Jones' scoring and passing, as well as the possibility he might be able to trim down a bit and unlock more of his ability in the process. As you go down the ranks of older college players with the requisite feel, intangibles and experience to potentially step in and help an NBA team next year, Jones is certainly a name teams will be watching for over the next couple of months. -- Woo

Recapturing the magic of last year's Final Four run hasn't been a straightforward task for Florida Atlantic this season. Head coach Dusty May and the Owls scheduled aggressively in the fall, netting a signature win over Arizona in Las Vegas in December, playing Illinois close and defeating several other Power 5 opponents. They've endured a couple of frustrating losses lately, losing on the road at Florida Gulf Coast and Charlotte in games that won't raise their floor as a March bubble team. But the primary constant for FAU has been the play of senior guard Johnell Davis, who has built an interesting case as a deep-cut sleeper in the mix for a two-way contract come spring.

Averaging 16.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.9 steals while making 51.6% of 2s and 44.1% of 3s on nearly four attempts per game, Davis has raised his play when called upon and been a consistent performer for the Owls. He measured just 6-foot-3¼ barefoot at last year's G League Elite Camp, tailoring him as more of a combo or off-guard than a true wing in the pros. The pitch is a Swiss-army-knife type of role, as he's a well-rounded contributor for his size, but lacks an elite skill to hang his hat on at this stage. His 35-point, nine-rebound performance against Arizona on Dec. 23 underscores what he's capable of, flashing shot-making skills and a high activity level that helped swing the game.

Much of the appeal here lies in Davis's toughness and adaptability. He's been asked to do a lot: He's arguably overstretched in his current role at FAU, where he often plays as a de facto point guard and can be a little bit turnover-prone. On the flipside, it's a positive that he has experience making decisions in a pinch, he's been shooting the ball with increased confidence, and based on what he's demonstrated in the past, his defensive contributions should improve in a situation where he's not shouldering a big offensive load. Davis also rebounds well for his size. It requires a bit of imagination to consider him in a very scaled-down professional role, but he's more well-rounded than most guards his size and shouldn't have to be a scorer to add value in the right situation.

It's not a foregone conclusion that Davis's game fully translates to the next level, but it does feel like he's earned a runway to prove himself on a two-way contract. Teams will want to see him continue to shoot well, limit turnovers and make the simple plays, and step up more defensively when called upon. If FAU makes it back into the tournament, he should have another valuable platform to prove his mettle as a winning role player. -- Woo

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